The Premier League finally returned! The games are played behind closed doors because of the COVID-19 pandemic and we will have a very exciting contest on Saturday, when Brighton and Hove Albion hosts Arsenal.
Brighton and Hove Albion is 15th in the Premier League standings with 29 points in 29 games, just two points ahead of the relegation spots while Arsenal is in ninth place with 40 points in 29 games. Brighton and Hove Albion played to a 0-0 road draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers on March 7 while Arsenal lost 3-0 on the road against Manchester City on Wednesday.
Let's take a closer look at where the value is in this matchup.
Betting Odds By Scoresandstats.com
Team to Win (Regular Time)
Brighton and Hove Albion: +205
Spread By Pay Per Head247
Brighton and Hove Albion: 0, +0.5 (-115)
Arsenal: 0, -0.5 (-105)
Over 2.5 (-109)
Under 2.5 (-111)
Key Points to Consider
Brighton and Hove Albion, coming off a 0-0 road draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers, have four draws, two losses and zero wins in their last six overall.
Arsenal, coming off a 3-0 road loss against Manchester City, have four wins, two losses and zero draws in their last six overall.
Momentum: Brighton and Hove Albion have been on a downward trend — they're winless in their last six games in the Premier League.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on December 5, 2019 and Brighton and Hove Albion won 2-1.
Simulations I have run project Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Neal Maupay, Edward Nketiah, Leandro Trossard and Aaron Mooy as the players most likely to score (four of these five players are from Brighton and Hove Albion).
In 10,000 simulations Arsenal won 33.2 percent of the time, Brighton and Hove Albion won 35.7 percent and there was a 31.2 percent chance of a draw. The leading scorer for Brighton & Hove Albion is Neal Maupay with a 34.0 percent chance of getting one or more goals. When Maupay has at least one goal Brighton & Hove Albion has a 61% chance to win.
Arsenal really struggled on Wednesday and Brighton and Hove Albion will have some rust after being out of action since March 7. Look for a low-scoring game on Saturday. I can see a 1-0 win for either team, a 1-1 draw, or a 0-0 draw.
Soccer Pick: Under 2.5 (-111)
More pay per head tips: