If you like to bet on things other than sports, betting on political events and outcomes can be really entertaining. Keep in mind political betting is not legal in any US states. Odds, displayed in fractional format, are taken from UK sites. Thus, this article is strictly recreational for US citizens.
With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the next US presidential elections and how you can bet on politics.
- 1 US Presidential Elections 2020 – Odds and Analysis
- 1.1 The Next US President Odds
- 1.2 Winning Party Odds
- 1.3 Democratic VP Nominee Betting Odds
- 1.4 Donald Trump Popular Vote Share
- 1.5 Voting Results by States
- 1.6 Odds for Specific Matchups
- 1.7 Odds for Other Specials/Props
- 2 How to Bet On Politics?
- 3 Betting on Politics – How Do Odds Work?
- 4 Conclusion
US Presidential Elections 2020 – Odds and Analysis
Now that you know how to bet on politics, let’s take a closer look at the odds for the 2020 US presidential elections. The odds will vary from one betting site to another but the odds we present here are the most common ones.
The Next US President Odds
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Joe Biden – 6/5
- Hillary Clinton – 20/1
- Mike Pence – 50/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 66/1
- Nikki Haley – 100/1
What the Odds Tell Us:
After Bernie Sanders decided to drop out of the race for the Democratic nomination, it has become obvious that the 2020 US presidential elections will give us a showdown between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. This is also evident in the odds, while the other names that are still on the list present possible choices only if some unforeseeable events happen.
While the elections are still months away, it is evident that bookmakers consider Donald Trump as a slight favorite over Joe Biden. However, Trump’s advantage in the odds has been steadily decreasing due to his response to the outbreak of Covid-19, which is also the reason why you can bet on Andrew Cuomo whose response to the crisis is seen as positive.
Winning Party Odds
- Republicans – 5/6
- Democrats – 10/11
- Independent – 50/1
What the Odds Tell Us:
The odds for the winning party are pretty similar to the odds for Donald Trump and Joe Biden, which is not a surprise since these two candidates are considered the main favorites. Consequently, the odds for an independent candidate are pretty high, although probably not high enough considering the simple fact that no independent candidate has ever won US presidential elections, with the exception of George Washington.
Democratic VP Nominee Betting Odds
- Kamala Harris – 6/4
- Amy Klobuchar – 7/2
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/2
- Gretchen Whitmer – 15/2
- Michelle Obama – 17/2
- Stacy Abrams – 14/1
What the Odds Tell Us:
Before we analyze the list, it is important to note that this list is not complete. There are odds available for many other candidates but they are not as likely to win the Democratic VP nomination as the candidates presented here. Also, you can probably get odds for any candidate you can think of and place a prop bet.
Still, we would not advise that since these are the most likely candidates for the job. It is evident that all the candidates are women, which is understandable since Joe Biden has promised that he will name a woman as his running mate. The biggest favorite is Kamala Harris, who could also bring the votes of African-Americans to the table and help Biden in the presidential race.
- Under 40% -11/1
- 40-45% – 9/4
- 45-50% – 6/5
- 50-55% – 9/2
- Over 60% – 10/1
What the Odds Tell Us:
After famously winning the presidential race in 2016 despite losing the popular vote with just 46.1%, it will be interesting to see whether Trump can have a better result in the popular vote share this year. Judging by the odds, that is not very likely.
The lowest odds are for Trump getting 45-50% of the popular vote, which falls in the same range as the previous elections. However, bookies obviously expect Trump to do worse before he does better since the odds for him getting 40-45% of the popular vote share are only a bit bigger than the 45-50% odds.
Voting Results by States
- Arizona: Democrat – 4/5; Republican – 10/11
- Florida: Democrat – 10/11; Republican – 10/11
- Pennsylvania: Democrat – 4/7; Republican – 5/4
- North Carolina: Democrat – 4/5; Republican – 10/11
- Ohio: Democrat – 8/15; Republican – 11/8
- Wisconsin: Democrat – 4/6; Republican – 11/10
What the Odds Tell Us:
Although you can bet on the results of presidential elections of any state, it is well known that some states are always “red”, while others are always “blue”. We have selected the most interesting odds that represent the tightest races, some of which are the so-called perennial swing states.
As we can see, the results in these states are far from predictable, which means that the odds are good. Having a hunch about the winners in these states can be very lucrative and these odds are probably not going to fluctuate much before the start of the elections.
Odds for Specific Matchups
Will Elizabeth Warren be the Democratic vice-president nominee?
- Yes: 13/2
- No: 1/8
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic vice-president nominee?
- Yes: 8/5
- No: 10/19
Will Amy Klobuchar be the Democratic vice-president nominee?
- Yes: 47/10
- No: 1/6
Will Hillary Clinton be the Democratic nominee?
- Yes: 15/1
- No: 1/23
Will Andrew Cuomo be the Democratic nominee?
- Yes: 1/40
- No: 1/60
Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee?
- Yes: 1/8
- No: 6/1
Odds for Other Specials/Props
While it’s not possible to cover all the specials and props that you can bet on when it comes to 2020 US presidential elections, let’s take a look at some of the most popular specials and their odds:
- Trump to win by further than in 2016 – 2/1
- Trump to lose popular vote but be re-elected – 2/1
- Democrats to win control of House, Senate & White House – 8/5
- Republicans to win control of House, Senate and White House – 3/1
- Trump to win any state not won in 2016 – 8/5
- Biden not to be the Democratic nominee – 5/1
- No presidential election to be held in 2020 – 6/1
- Election winner is NOT Trump or Biden – 8/1
- Trump NOT to be the Republican nominee – 12/1
- Trump to win all 50 states – 25/1
- Democratic candidate to win all 50 States – 50/1
How to Bet On Politics?
If you don’t have experience when it comes to betting on political events like the US presidential elections, you may wonder how would you even do it. While this may sound difficult or complicated, it is actually pretty similar to betting on sports.
What Political Events Can You Bet On?
Keep in mind that betting on political events is available on all betting websites but the best betting sites offer a wide variety of political events you can bet on:
US Presidential Elections
Presidential elections in the US are probably the most anticipated elections across the world, so it’s not a surprise that they are also the most popular elections you can bet on. Everybody has their opinion on who the next US president is going to be and you can take part in it as well. We will focus on the US presidential elections and odds later in the article.
US Congressional Elections
Betting on US congressional elections is not as popular as betting on the next president of the USA but many betting sites still give you this opportunity.
Of course, in order to bet on US congressional elections you need to be more politically informed. After all, the nature of these elections is more regional than national and most bettors are not that interested in potential congressmen outside of their own state.
Other Political Events
In addition to US politics, you can also bet on the politics of other countries. Although these events are also not as popular as US presidential elections, you can still find some interesting things to bet on, especially if you follow the politics of the world and particularly European politics.
For example, you can bet on various referendums that happen around the world, like it was the case with Brexit or Scottish independence. There are also British Parliament elections, Australian Parliament elections, next Prime Minister of the UK, next president of France, next Chancellor of Germany, and many other major political events that bookies deem worthy of betting.
Types of Political Bets
The types of political bets may not be as reach as the type of bets you can place on sports but there is still plenty to choose from:
- Moneyline – This type of bet allows you to bet on a specific outcome. It is usually in the form of win or lose, or yes or no, like if you bet whether Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election.
- Over/Under – In sports, this bet allows you to predict whether the final outcome will bring more or less points/goals than a specific line. In politics, this bet also focuses on a specific number. For example, you may bet whether Donald Trump will receive more or less than 280 electoral votes.
- Spreads – This type of bet allows you to guess a specific range. If you stay within the range, you win the bet. For example, you may bet that Donald Trump will win more than 50% of the electoral votes.
- Futures – If you like to bet on events that are supposed to occur in the future, this type of bet is the right for you. You can bet on events that will happen weeks, months or even years from the time you made the bet. For example, you can bet on the winner of the 2024 US presidential elections.
- Props – Props, or proposition bets, are unique and usually odd bets that often don’t have a lot of data to back them up. These bets are also the most entertaining ones. For example, you can bet on whether Donald Trump will get thrown out of office before the end of his term, or who will Joe Biden select as his running mate.
Betting on Politics – How Do Odds Work?
Before we present you with the odds for 2020 US presidential elections, let’s take a closer look at things that affect odds and explain how to read and understand the odds.
How to Understand Odds
Betting odds represent a probability of an event happening. That means that odds are often a good indicator of how likely an outcome is. However, odds also allow you to calculate your potential winnings if you predict the outcome of a specific political event.
For example, the odds on Donald Trump to become the next president are 10/11. The first number represents the amount you can win, the second number the amount you have to bet in order to win the amount represented by the first number. In this case, you will win $10 for every $11 that you bet, if Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential elections.
What Affects the Odds in Politics
In sports, many different things can affect odds – the strength of the teams, injuries, current form, etc. Things work similarly in politics but the factors that affect the odds are quite different.
- Personality – The most important thing that affects odds in the political betting arena is the personality of candidates. In addition to having intelligence and charisma, voters will also pay attention to odd promises, eccentricities and lies.
- Leadership – Although there are many cases when candidates without any previous political experience end up winning elections, odds are also affected by their leadership skills. If the candidate has proven his leadership in another position in the past, he or she will have better chances to get elected – thus having smaller odds.
- Scandals – For political parties and politicians themselves, scandals play a major role when it comes to electability. In many cases even rumors and gossip can put a major hit on a candidate’s chances to get elected – at least on most of them.
- Health – Even though politicians don’t suffer injuries like athletes, any questions raised about their health can make them seem weak. This is particularly true if the candidate in question is considered old, which makes any potential health issues even more serious.
Betting on politics can be pretty entertaining and, if you are politically savvy and well-informed. However, experience from some of the previous US presidential elections shows that elections can be pretty unpredictable.
Keep in mind our guidelines for betting on political events and have luck in predicting who will be the next president of the United States.