When you’re a bookie using a pay per head (PPH), they handle the betting lines.
PPH services hire linemakers to set the odds and keep them updated until the market closes. If you have ever bet on sports previously, you know that the odds change
For example, if news comes out midweek that a QB isn’t going to play Sunday, then the market is going to move a lot and you want to make sure you’re not overly exposed to that game.
Another time you want to keep an eye on the betting lines is when they’re around key numbers.
What Are Key Numbers?
The main key numbers to focus on are for football.
We wouldn’t recommend worrying too much about key numbers in other sports, as you’d spend all day worrying about betting lines, which you shouldn’t be doing when you use a pay per head.
However, the two key numbers in football to watch out for are 3 points and 7 points. More football games end within 3 or 7 points than any other winning margin, which makes sense.
After all, in football you get three points for a FG and seven points for a TD as long as the kick for the extra point is good. These are the key numbers you need to always look out for.
Why You Need to Look Out for NFL Key Numbers
There are multiple reasons you should be on the lookout for key numbers in the NFL.
1. Higher Chance to Push: When a point spread is set at -3/+3 or -7/+7, there’s a higher chance that the game will push and you don’t want that to happen, as stakes are refunded and you end up making nothing. You could opt to move the line a ½ point to avoid pushes.
If the line stabilized across the board at -3, there’s a good chance the game will push. In fact, about 15% of NFL games finish with a winning margin of three points, which is the most common margin.
2. Teasers: You want to be careful when NFL teasers cross key numbers because those have historically hit at a high rate. You can’t avoid it in some cases, but if you notice a player is only betting teasers crossing key numbers and they’re always winning, limit them.
3. Risk Exposure: NFL games sitting on or around key numbers often generate the most action that week and you need to constantly be watching your risk exposure for every game.
Remember, if you have too much action on a game your PPH provider should have a layoff account where you can trade some of your action with another bookie to lower your exposure effectively.
Even though your PPH service handles betting lines, you should keep an eye on the most important markets. If you have local clients, you should also keep an eye on the odds for the local teams.
You always want to know what’s going on at your sportsbook, including where the money is going.
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