It’s a college football season like none other, but we still need to look at college football betting trends for 2020. Most teams will finish the season without a game out of conference. The Big Ten was slow to start and will only play eight games.
The Pac-12 just kicked off this past weekend and will only play seven games. And yet we’re still going to cobble together a college football playoff out of these shortened seasons.
The unique circumstances created by the COVID-19 pandemic has also changed gambling on college football, both weekly wagers and when betting NCAAF futures. With some seasons not kicking off until November, we have less knowledge and fewer data points.
And with no real sense of how good teams may be, many bets are being made from best guesses, or as good as a guess can be.
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College Football Against the Spread Trends
The atmosphere ranges from no fans, some fans, to 11,000 Notre Dame fans that rushed the field on Saturday. And that change in home-field advantage is reflected in the numbers.
Away teams are covering the spread more than 50% of the time. Away dogs are covering at 53%, the same for all dogs. And this past weekend, the first for the Pac-12 football, away teams covered an eye-popping 62%. Away dogs covered at an even more impressive 72%.
What exactly can we take from this as we look to the remainder of the season? Nothing is a sure thing, so be cautious.
And with COVID possibly putting a starting quarterback on the sidelines, bet later in the week. Clemson’s offense played well at Notre Dame even without Trevor Lawrence. But his absence shifted the line considerably, as well as the betting fortunes of many.
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The SEC has been playing since September, with six weeks in the books. But even there, it is taking some time to adjust to the new norms. Like Arkansas, who is now a perfect 6-0 against the spread and 4-0 against ranked teams.
Or the reality that Mike Leach’s offense at Mississippi State is a major work in progress. The Bulldogs are 1-5 against the spread, falling an average of eight points short. These are some interesting college football betting trends.
In the Big 12, the Texas Longhorns continue to live off reputation. They are 5-2 on the season but just 2-4-1 against the point spread. Meanwhile, West Virginia is flying under the radar, with a 5-2 record ATS. You may have seen these teams in the premium college football picks posted over at Action Sports Picks.
No one knew what adding Notre Dame to the ACC would change. We all just “knew” that Clemson would roll over everyone in its path. Well, the presumed best team in the country just lost and is only 2-6 against the spread. Meanwhile, your best bet in the ACC is Wake Forest, at 5-1 ATS, by an average of 10 points.
In the NFL, offense has been king, and the smart bet is the over. In college football, however, we haven’t seen that trend. The over is ahead of the under by a handful of games, but that’s driven exclusively by overtime games. When a game ends after 60 minutes, the over and the under are hitting at exactly 50%.
You can see, even though this has been a season like no other, you need to focus on college football betting trends to help you win more bets.